Probability of accidental death

So I’ve received two separate SMSs from my bankers over the last few days. One of them asks me to sign up for the Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana at Rs. 12 per annum for an insurance against accidental worth Rs. 2 lakhs. The other SMS asks me to sign up for a more general life insurance scheme (the Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Yojana) by paying a premium of Rs. 330 per annum. Here is a poster that describes the two schemes:

Considering that you can insure yourself against all kinds of death for a premium of Rs. 330 per annum, and you can insure yourself against accidental death alone for a premium of Rs. 12 per annum, what this implies is that the probability of death by accident given death is 12/330 or 3.6%. Which seems rather low considering that it’s mostly the younger population that is covered by these insurance schemes!

That aside, it’s a good move by the government to increase insurance penetration. I don’t know about accidental death, but the rate on the life insurance is pretty good, and there is a reasonable cut for the banks too for distributing this instrument. And going by the principle that you should be insured for about 5-7 years’ of annual income, Rs. 2 lakhs is a decent amount (India’s mean income is USD 1500 (~INR 90,000) per head. But the median income is likely to be much lower ).

Moreover, the implementation of these schemes is rather simple, since the premium directly goes from your bank account and you can sign up with a SMS, and there are no medical tests. Hopefully this scheme will take off and the insurance penetration in India will increase significantly.

As an aside, I wonder what impact this will have on the life insurance industry which thrives in selling plans that are a combination of insurance and investment. Now that this scheme shows off the real cost of insurance (Rs. 330 for a Rs. 2 lakh insurance), customers might become more discerning about these combo plans and see through the margins the insurers are making, and this may not be all that good for the insurers. Though this might be offset by these insurers themselves becoming underwriters to the government plan itself.

Disclosure: I’ve worked as a consultant with a leading Indian life insurance firm.

 

Axes of diversity

Companies and educational institutions, especially those that have a global footprint and a reputation to protect, make a big deal about diversity policies. It is almost impossible to sit through a recruitment or admissions talk by one such entity without a mention to their diversity policies, which they are proud of.

And they have good reasons to have a diverse workforce. It has been shown, for example, that diversity leads to better decision-making and overall better performance. Having a diverse workforce brings together people with different backgrounds, and since backgrounds influence opinion, a more diverse team is more likely to have more diversity of opinion which results in better decision making. And so forth.

The problem, however, is that it is not easy to simultaneously achieve diversity on all possible axes. Let’s say that we have defined a number of axes, and are looking to recruit an incoming MBA class. If we want diversity on each of these axes, selection of each candidate is going to rule out a large number of other candidates and we will need a really large pool to choose from. In other words, it is akin to the eight queens problem (where you have to place eight queens on a chessboard such that no two of them are on the same row, column or diagonal). For those of you not familiar with chess, think of it like a Sudoku puzzle.

Since the pool of candidates large enough to achieve diversity on all axes is simply not feasible, firms and schools choose to prioritise certain axes over others, and seek to achieve diversity in these chosen axes. And since they can arbitrarily choose axes that they can prioritise, the incentive is to pick out those axes where diversity is most visible.

And so when you go to a global organisation or school that preaches diversity, you will notice that they indeed have a very diverse workforce/student body in terms of gender, race, and nationality, which are fairly visible dimensions. Beyond this, the choice of dimensions to impose diversity on is a matter of discretion. So you have organisations which seek diversity in sexual orientation. Others seek diversity in age profile. Yet others in educational backgrounds. And so forth.

The result of prioritising more “visible” dimensions to ensure diversity is that organisations end up becoming horribly similar in the “sacrificed dimensions”. Check out this excerpt from Peter Thiel’s Zero to One, for example, on the founding members of paypal:

The early PayPal team worked well together because we were all the same kind of nerd. We all loved science fiction: Cryptonomicon was required reading, and we preferred the capitalist Star Wars to the communist Star Trek

Now, remember that this was a fairly diverse team when it came to ethnicity, nationality and sexuality. But in a less visible dimension, the team was not diverse at all. And Thiel mentions it in his book as if it’s a good thing that they all thought so similarly.

On a similar note, I once worked for an organisation that made great shakes of its diversity policy, and the organisation was pretty diverse in terms pretty much every visible axis of diversity. And the seminars (some compulsory) they organised helped me significantly broaden my outlook on issues such as race or sexual orientation. But when it came to work, the (fairly large) team was horribly similar. Quoting from an earlier blogpost (a bit ranty, I admit):

First, a large number of guys building models come from similar backgrounds, so they think similarly. Because so many people think similarly, the rest train themselves to think similarly (or else get nudged out, by whatever means). So you have massive organizations full of massively talented brilliant minds which all think similarly! Who is to ask the uncomfortable questions?

So essentially because you had a large organisation of people from basically similar educational backgrounds (masters and PhDs in similar subjects), their way of thinking became dominant, and others were forced to conform, leading to groupthink, which might have potentially led to mishaps (but didn’t, at least not in my time).

And what of the Ivy League schools that again pride themselves on (visible forms of) diversity? Here is an excerpt from William Deresiewicz’s excellent 2008 essay:

Elite schools pride themselves on their diversity, but that diversity is almost entirely a matter of ethnicity and race. With respect to class, these schools are largely—indeed increasingly—homogeneous. Visit any elite campus in our great nation and you can thrill to the heartwarming spectacle of the children of white businesspeople and professionals studying and playing alongside the children of black, Asian, and Latino businesspeople and professionals. At the same time, because these schools tend to cultivate liberal attitudes, they leave their students in the paradoxical position of wanting to advocate on behalf of the working class while being unable to hold a simple conversation with anyone in it.

So the next time you want to make your organisation diverse, think of which axes you want diversity on. If you are public-minded and want to brag about your diversity, the obvious way to go would be to be diverse on visible axes, but that leaves other issues. On the other hand you could put together a team of people that look the same but think different!

It’s entirely up to you!

 

Budget Analysis

So I finally finished going through today’s Mint and noticed that most of it was filled with analysis of the budget. I tried reading most of them, and didn’t manage to finish any of them (save Anil Padmanabhan’s I think). Most of them were full of globe, each had an idea that could have been expressed in a few tweets, rather than a full column.

Thinking about it, I guess I was expecting too much. After all, if you are calling captains of the industry and sundry bankers and consultants to write about the budget, I don’t think you can expect them to come out with much honest analysis. Think about their incentives.

As for corporate guys, you will expect them to make the usual noises and perhaps be partisan in their judgment. You can expect them to crib about those parts of the budget that shortchanged their company or industry or sector or whatever. But you don’t need them in an op-ed to tell you that – it is obvious to you if you read the highlights, or some rudimentary analysis that the paper anyway provides.

However, these guys won’t want to rub the ruling party the wrong way, so they fill up the rest of their essays with some globe about how it is a “progressive” budget or a “pro-poor” budget or some such shyte. So far so good.

The think tank guys are probably better. At least they don’t have any constituency to pander to, and they can give a good critical analysis. However, as academics (and most likely, not being bloggers) what they write is usually not very easy to read, and so what they say (which might actually contain something useful) can be lost to the reader.

The worst of all are the fat-cat consultants and bankers. The reason they write is primarily to gain visibility for themselves and for their firm, and given how lucrative government business is for these guys (look at the ridiculously low fees these guys charge for government IPOs, and you’ll know) they have absolutely no incentive to tell something useful, or honest. Again these guys aren’t used to writing for a general audience. So you can expect more globe.

All that I needed to learn about the budget I learnt by way of a brief unopinionated summary sent in an internal email at work yesterday (it took me 2 mins to read it on my blackberry). And also Anil Padmanabhan’s cover page article in today’s Mint.

update:

I must mention I wrote this post after I’d read the main segment of today’s Mint. Starting to read the “opinion” supplement now, and it looks more promising