So Liverpool FC has had a mixed season so far. They’re second in the Premier League with 36 points from 14 games (only points dropped being draws against ManCity, Chelsea and Arsenal), but are on the verge of going out of the Champions League, having lost all three away games.
Yesterday’s win over Everton was damn lucky, down to a 96th minute freak goal scored by Divock Origi (I’d forgotten he’s still at the club). Last weekend’s 3-0 against Watford wasn’t as comfortable as the scoreline suggested, the scoreline having been opened only midway through the second half. The 2-0 against Fulham before that was similarly a close-fought game.
Of concern to most Liverpool fans has been the form of the starting front three – Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane. The trio has missed a host of chances this season, and the team has looked incredibly ineffective in the away losses in the Champions League (the only shot on target in the 2-1 loss against PSG being the penalty that was scored by Milner).
There are positives, of course. The defence has been tightened considerably compared to last season. Liverpool aren’t leaking goals the way they did last season. There have been quite a few clean sheets so far this season. So far there has been no repeat of last season’s situation where they went 4-1 up against ManCity, only to quickly let in two goals and then set up a tense finish.
So my theory is this – each of the front three of Liverpool has an incredibly low strike rate. I don’t know if the xG stat captures this, but the number of chances required by each of Mane, Salah and Firmino before they can convert is rather low. If the average striker converts one in two chances, all of these guys convert one in four (these numbers are pulled out of thin air. I haven’t looked at the statistics).
And even during the “glory days” of last season when Liverpool was scoring like crazy, this low strike rate remained. Instead, what helped then was a massive increase in the number of chances created. The one game I watched live (against Spurs at Wembley), what struck me was the number of chances Salah kept missing. But as the chances kept getting created, he ultimately scored one (Liverpool lost 4-1).
What I suspect is that as Klopp decided to tighten things up at the back this season, the number of chances being created has dropped. And with the low strike rate of each of the front three, this lower number of chances translates into much lower number of goals being scored. If we want last season’s scoring rate, we might also have to accept last season’s concession rate (though this season’s goalie is much much better).
There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.