You can use the slider below to see how changes in vote share of major parties affects the seat distribution. The “base” here is the vote share in the 2008 Assembly Elections. The numbers on the sliders are in percentages.
This new version uses the vote shares in various districts during the recent Urban Local Body elections to account for the BJP split. As you can see, there is a slider that allows you to indicate how much of the split of the BJP’s votes as per the recent ULB elections will reflect in the forthcoming assembly elections. The reason for this slider is due to feedback that the split of BJP votes in the local body elections may not translate directly to the assembly elections.
There is also a slider called ‘performance impact’. This is based on data from the Daksh survey where samples of voters were asked to evaluate their sitting MLA. The way to use this is that when the slider is at 0, there is no impact of the MLA’s performance on vote share in the forthcoming elections. When it is at 5, an MLA who voters are “extremely happy” with will get 5% additional votes, and an MLA who voters are extremely unhappy with gets 5% less votes than what he did last time.