Yesterday I was reading through Ole Peters’s lecture notes on ergodicity, a topic that I got interested in thanks to my extensive use of Utility Theory in my work nowadays. And I had a revelation – that in standard stochastic finance, mean returns and standard deviation of returns don’t have the same dimensions. Instead, it’s mean returns and the variance of returns that have the same dimensions.
While this might sound counterintuitive, it is not hard to see if you think about it analytically. We will start with what is possibly the most basic equation in stochastic finance, which is the lognormal random walk model of stock prices.
This can be rewritten as
Now, let us look at dimensions. The LHS divides change in stock price by stock price, and is hence dimensionless. So the RHS needs to be dimensionless as well if the equation is to make sense.
It is easy to see that the first term on the RHS is dimensionless – , the average returns or the drift, is defined as “returns per unit time”. So a stock that returns, on average, 10% in a year returns 20% in two years. So returns has dimensions , and multiplying it with which has the unit of time renders it dimensionless.
That leaves us with the last term. is the Wiener Process, and is defined such that . This implies that has the dimensions . This means that the equation is meaningful if and only if has dimensions , which is the same as saying that has dimensions , which is the same as the dimensions of the mean returns.
It is not hard to convince yourself that it makes intuitive sense as well. The basic assumption of a random walk is that the variance grows linearly with time (another way of seeing this is that when you add two uncorrelated random variables, their variances add up to give the variance of the sum). From this again, variance has the units of inverse time – the same as the mean.
Finally, speaking of dimensional analysis and Ole Peters, check out his proof of the Pythagoras Theorem using dimensional analysis.
People were asking about dimensional analysis.
If a technique produces a three-line proof of Pythagoras, come on! you know you've got something good. Here's a sketch — full details and caveats in Barenblatt's "Scaling." pic.twitter.com/u9zOtLyGpC
— Ole Peters (@ole_b_peters) September 3, 2018
Isn’t it beautiful?
PS: Speaking of dimensional analysis, check out my recent post on stocks and flows and financial ratios.