Comments on: Moron Astrology http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/ Mon, 21 May 2012 16:07:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Saurabh http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-7906 Saurabh Sat, 03 Jul 2010 06:21:13 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-7906 Really good one 1) The first issue is that of co-integration. While the position of planets is correlated to the events in life, one doesnt cause the other and thus any pooja etc. wouldnt have any effect (thats how I logically think but dont believe and have a feeling that may be I dont know enough as of now) 2) Re-caliberation is missing these days totally. Vedic astrology is a very very complex data set to model. you have 9 planets(variables) each of which can have 28 positions (values). But then it is expected if this has to model human future. Thats my long term desire to one day successfully model it up Really good one

1) The first issue is that of co-integration. While the position of planets is correlated to the events in life, one doesnt cause the other and thus any pooja etc. wouldnt have any effect (thats how I logically think but dont believe and have a feeling that may be I dont know enough as of now)

2) Re-caliberation is missing these days totally. Vedic astrology is a very very complex data set to model. you have 9 planets(variables) each of which can have 28 positions (values). But then it is expected if this has to model human future.

Thats my long term desire to one day successfully model it up

]]> By: Dibyo http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3789 Dibyo Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:59:47 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3789 good point, that the correlation between planetary positions might put spanner in the regression - but how 'strongly' correlated are the planetary positions among themselves? It's cyclical, probably, but not necessarily correlated, because outside of the cycle, each body will have it's own path with it's own cycle. good point, that the correlation between planetary positions might put spanner in the regression – but how ‘strongly’ correlated are the planetary positions among themselves? It’s cyclical, probably, but not necessarily correlated, because outside of the cycle, each body will have it’s own path with it’s own cycle.

]]> By: Dibyo http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3788 Dibyo Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:56:30 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3788 strong. strong.

]]> By: Kiran http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3694 Kiran Sun, 29 Nov 2009 05:27:55 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3694 Hi, Given that you have an interest in astrology, thought I will let you know of a couple of good references on astrology: 1) Jagannatha Hora software: Does not do any predictions but does all the calculations - as predictions are dependent on interpretation. Written by PVR Narasimha Rao, IIT Chennai Computer Science Grad, AIR top 10 given away for free http://www.vedicastrologer.org/jh/ A good book for beginners exists by same author Otherwise you can also refer books by James Braha 2) For slightly advanced topics, a great book is "Art and practice of ancient indian astrology: Nine intimate sessions between teacher and student" by James Braha Hi,

Given that you have an interest in astrology, thought I will let you know of a couple of good references on astrology:

1) Jagannatha Hora software:
Does not do any predictions but does all the calculations – as predictions are dependent on interpretation.
Written by PVR Narasimha Rao, IIT Chennai Computer Science Grad, AIR top 10 given away for free
http://www.vedicastrologer.org/jh/

A good book for beginners exists by same author
Otherwise you can also refer books by James Braha

2) For slightly advanced topics, a great book is
“Art and practice of ancient indian astrology: Nine intimate sessions between teacher and student” by James Braha

]]> By: skimpy http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3640 skimpy Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:05:37 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3640 whoa! finally got down to reading your entier comment. good stuff only. I had only written about the intial tournament and picking winner in that, but your funda of Genetic Algorithms is a killer! amazing stuff whoa! finally got down to reading your entier comment. good stuff only. I had only written about the intial tournament and picking winner in that, but your funda of Genetic Algorithms is a killer! amazing stuff

]]> By: Horoscopes and Caesarean Births | Pertinent Observations http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3639 Horoscopes and Caesarean Births | Pertinent Observations Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:28:52 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3639 [...] Comments Chevalier on Shoe ShoppingSmilingBuddhu on Moron AstrologyAllen on Discontinuous Yield CurvesSandhya on Discontinuous Yield Curvessk on Moron Astrologyanon on [...] [...] Comments Chevalier on Shoe ShoppingSmilingBuddhu on Moron AstrologyAllen on Discontinuous Yield CurvesSandhya on Discontinuous Yield Curvessk on Moron Astrologyanon on [...]

]]> By: SmilingBuddhu http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3635 SmilingBuddhu Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:49:53 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3635 An astrologer is a BSer who gets paid for making inconsistent statements and non-falsifiable claims. Astrology has survived as it offers "false hope" to people, which is a therapeutic cure for most of the mind problems. An astrologer is a BSer who gets paid for making inconsistent statements and non-falsifiable claims. Astrology has survived as it offers “false hope” to people, which is a therapeutic cure for most of the mind problems.

]]> By: sk http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3622 sk Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:36:30 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3622 the core premise of this post- that some form of regression was performed to fit the data to a model- IMHO is flawed. It fails to take into account how much people would want a prediction for their future. If at all some kind of fitting was performed, it was done in some Monte Carlo kind of way- small perturbations to the current parameter sets were explored to see if they better fit the recent data. Now, these 'fits' were performed by a consortium of people who probably did not compare notes/ take efforts to have a common stable build. So, many flavours existed which were not differentiable to the common man... who just went to the astrologer with the best PR. I can also imagine crossing over occurring in the model- like in a genetic algorithm- where some 'famous' parameter values of one of the models get adopted by another. If treated as a genetic algorithm (which you allude to when you mention natural selection), the selection pressure is not stringent and hence allows for a lot of neutral drift... which allows for suboptimal solutions to exist in the population of solutions. Another factor to be considered is that the next generation of astrologers who take a currently 'well performing' model may not be competent enough, thereby allowing it to be superceded by other models. This feature adds to the neutral drift property of selection. Also, many predictions/applications of astrology are in benign areas where a failure of the model cannot be noticed. For example, most weddings just worked in indian society, irrespective of astrology. another feature of multinomial regression that comes to mind is IIA- which basically states that addition of another random noise kind of parameter to the model will not affect the other parameters. This feature would be particularly useful to the R&D astrologers, who could include new parameters and further fine tune the model. One problem with using regression is the presence of correlation in the dataset of free variables- ie the planetary positions are not independent of each other. OK. enough rambling. sorry for not writing in some cogent manner- i kind of just jotted down a subset of issues that came to mind when reading the blog. maybe one can blog about the train of thoughts that led to this comment- because i didnt edit the comment at all... so there should be a narrative... i hope its non-linear :) the core premise of this post- that some form of regression was performed to fit the data to a model- IMHO is flawed. It fails to take into account how much people would want a prediction for their future. If at all some kind of fitting was performed, it was done in some Monte Carlo kind of way- small perturbations to the current parameter sets were explored to see if they better fit the recent data. Now, these ‘fits’ were performed by a consortium of people who probably did not compare notes/ take efforts to have a common stable build. So, many flavours existed which were not differentiable to the common man… who just went to the astrologer with the best PR. I can also imagine crossing over occurring in the model- like in a genetic algorithm- where some ‘famous’ parameter values of one of the models get adopted by another. If treated as a genetic algorithm (which you allude to when you mention natural selection), the selection pressure is not stringent and hence allows for a lot of neutral drift… which allows for suboptimal solutions to exist in the population of solutions. Another factor to be considered is that the next generation of astrologers who take a currently ‘well performing’ model may not be competent enough, thereby allowing it to be superceded by other models. This feature adds to the neutral drift property of selection.
Also, many predictions/applications of astrology are in benign areas where a failure of the model cannot be noticed. For example, most weddings just worked in indian society, irrespective of astrology.
another feature of multinomial regression that comes to mind is IIA- which basically states that addition of another random noise kind of parameter to the model will not affect the other parameters. This feature would be particularly useful to the R&D astrologers, who could include new parameters and further fine tune the model.
One problem with using regression is the presence of correlation in the dataset of free variables- ie the planetary positions are not independent of each other.
OK. enough rambling. sorry for not writing in some cogent manner- i kind of just jotted down a subset of issues that came to mind when reading the blog. maybe one can blog about the train of thoughts that led to this comment- because i didnt edit the comment at all… so there should be a narrative… i hope its non-linear :)

]]> By: anon http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3620 anon Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:31:08 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3620 astrology is a multinomial logit regression wherein one can only find probability based on various star positions at a point in time. it would be interesting to find the range of the time as a function of time. secondly the legendary error term in this case is quite important given insufficient understanding and the problem of unknown unknowns. probably a test on data points would help tell the nature of its distribution & expected mean astrology is a multinomial logit regression wherein one can only find probability based on various star positions at a point in time. it would be interesting to find the range of the time as a function of time. secondly the legendary error term in this case is quite important given insufficient understanding and the problem of unknown unknowns. probably a test on data points would help tell the nature of its distribution & expected mean

]]> By: Pickup Guy http://noenthuda.com/blog/2009/11/18/moron-astrology/comment-page-1/#comment-3606 Pickup Guy Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:41:26 +0000 http://noenthuda.com/blog/?p=1520#comment-3606 Do you ever write in normal English that regular people can understand? Do you ever write in normal English that regular people can understand?

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